Aluminum and copper: time for records and hopes.
NONFERROUS METALS
NONFERROUS METALS
Aluminum and copper: time for records and hopes.
World market
Aluminum
Should one draw a comparison between the situation on aluminum market in
June with that observed throughout the whole year, a definite progress can be discovered.
After a continuous period of low rates, non-stability and speculations on the market, in
late June – early July, the price for aluminum reached its best mark in the last year
and two months, thus, outrunning the level of USD/MT 1,400.
In the first three months of 1999, as well as at the beginning of the
second quarter, the analyzed market was undergoing influence of a number of factors
reflecting the downward tendency in prices for aluminum. These included: no increase in
demand for metal by the USA and Europe, slow rehabilitation of Southeast Asian economies,
unwillingness of producers to cut metal output, commissioning of new production
capacities, inflow of aluminum from countries of Eastern Europe, and a subsequent increase
in LME warehouses’ stock). Every local increase in prices occurred under the influence
of purely technical factors. Nonetheless, at the end of the second quarter, the situation
was on the turn.
Recovery of Asian markets and intensification of demand for aluminum
practically all over the world, especially, in Europe and the USA – the regions on the
stage of their economic upturn (particularly, the USA) – facilitated upsurge in prices
for aluminum and aluminum alloys in June. Another supportive factor was the increase in
copper prices, which also contributed to growth in aluminum prices.
In June, despite the summer season, prices for aluminum gradually
appreciated from USD/MT 1,242 to USD/MT 1,374.5-1,383. By the forecasts of experts, in the
nearest weeks, average prices for aluminum will range within USD/MT 1,400-1,450. The price
for aluminum alloys (А380.1 grade) also increased from USD/MT 1,165 in early June to
USD/MT 1,221-1,231 at the end of the month.
Simultaneously to global increase in prices for aluminum, aluminum premiums
couldn’t help moving upward. While in early May, in Rotterdam, premiums for high-quality
aluminum of Western origin with unpaid duty were USD/MT 35-42, with further monthly
increase to USD/MT 38-45, by the beginning of the third June decade, they touched the
level of USD/MT 43-48. As of the early July, premiums drove to USD/MT 45-50.
Last month, level of premiums in Southeast Asia also advanced from USD/MT
70-75 at the beginning of month to USD/MT 82-88 in Japan, and from USD/MT 80-85 to USD/MT
85-90 in Korea.
It should be mentioned that due to economic recovery in South East Asian
countries, some European suppliers (including Russian and Ukrainian ones) of aluminum and
aluminum alloys forwarded most supplies to this region, which led to the local shortage of
this metal in Europe and also affected prices.
Needless to say, the fact of expanded aluminum utilization in automotive
industry is of great importance. Taking into consideration that producers of aluminum
package desperately fight with their direct rivals manufacturing packages from glass and
plastics, this fact is extremely encouraging for producers of aluminum and aluminum
alloys.
This can be well confirmed by the recent deal between the American giant
“General Motors Corporation” and the largest world producer of unrefined aluminum
Canadian “Alcan Aluminium Ltd.”, to supply unrefined aluminum during ten years under
the relatively predictable prices. This condition was specified since, during the last two
years, the price for aluminum ranged within USD/MT 1,150 and USD/MT 1,700. This contract
will insure “GMC”, one of the largest world producers of automobiles, from the risk of
fluctuating prices for this metal.
One of the key moments of the event was the statement by “GMC”
representatives that aluminum outran steel in terms of expenses’ efficiency (potential
of its refining was taken into account as well) and that its utilization in the world
automobile building would increase year-on-year.
According to “GMC” spokesmen, self-cost of product manufactured from
steel (steel scrap) is some USD 1.7 per one kilogram of the product. Provided
manufacturing from aluminum, this ratio indicates USD 1.06 per kilogram.
Despite the summer dead season, the experts forecast that stability in
prices for aluminum will keep during the whole summer. In the near future, prices for this
metal will fluctuate within the range of USD/MT 1,390-1,460.
Table 1. LME aluminum quotations in 1997-1999 (1st half-year),
USD/MT
|
Price |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
|||
|
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
|
| Low |
1,139.75 |
1,162.75 |
1,216.0 (15/12/98) |
1,238.5 (15/12/98) |
1,487.75 (29/12/97) |
1,517.25 (29/12/97) |
| High |
1,383.00 (29/06/99) |
1,412.50 (29/06/99) |
1,518 (28/01/98) |
1,538.00 (28/01/98) |
1,775.5 (07/08/97) |
1,755.25 (07/08/97) |
| Average |
1,250.94 |
1,271.97 |
1,357.55 |
1,379.88 |
1,598.42 |
1,618.52 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Table 2. LME average aluminum prices in 1995-1999 (1st half-year),
USD/MT
|
Spot |
3 months* |
|
|
1995 |
1,804.98 |
1,831.81 |
|
1996 |
1,504.08 |
1,534.73 |
|
1997 |
1,598.42 |
1,618.52 |
|
1998 |
1,357.55 |
1,379.88 |
|
1999 |
1,250.94 |
1,271.97 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Table 3. LME average prices for A380.1 aluminum alloy in 1995-1999
(1st half-year), USD/MT
|
Spot |
3 months* |
|
|
1995 |
1,655.08 |
1,686.24 |
|
1996 |
1,300.56 |
1,333.83 |
|
1997 |
1,459.72 |
1,481.88 |
|
1998 |
1,212.60 |
1,231.55 |
|
1999 |
1,117.83 |
1,138.81 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Table 4. LME quotations for А380.1 aluminum alloy in 1997-1999 (1st
half-year), USD/MT
|
Price
|
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
|||
|
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
|
| Low | 996.50 | 1,025.50 | 1,023
(23/12/98) |
1,056.00
(23/12/98) |
1,355.00
(29/12/97) |
1,562.50
(24/02/97) |
| High | 1,272.00
(13/05/99) |
1,287.00
(13/05/99) |
1,365.5
(05/01/98) |
1,369.00
(23/01/98) |
1,542.50
(24/01/97) |
1,377.50
(29/12/97) |
| Average | 1,117.83 | 1,138.81 | 1,212.6 | 1,231.55 | 1,459.72 | 1,481.88 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Table 5. Dynamics of LME prices for aluminum in 1997-1999 (1st
half-year), USD/MT
|
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
|
| January |
1,218.45 |
1,224.40 |
1,485.55 |
1,507.90 |
1,580.01 |
1,609.50 |
| February |
1,187.25 |
1,207.28 |
1,465.60 |
1,483.73 |
1,575.61 |
1,603.99 |
| March |
1,181.98 |
1,203.96 |
1,437.52 |
1,459.86 |
1,631.57 |
1,662.83 |
| April |
1,278.55 |
1,299.99 |
1,417.73 |
1,443.18 |
1,561.44 |
1,594.23 |
| May |
1,323.79 |
1,350.13 |
1,364.37 |
1,392.05 |
1,625.25 |
1,645.65 |
| June |
1,315.64 |
1,346.03 |
1,307.26 |
1,336.95 |
1,567.55 |
1,590.31 |
| July |
— |
— |
1,309.54 |
1,332.59 |
1,591.99 |
1,610.97 |
| August |
— |
— |
1,311.25 |
1,330.82 |
1,710.58 |
1,686.00 |
| September |
— |
— |
1,342.64 |
1,369.77 |
1,610.60 |
1,624.18 |
| October |
— |
— |
1,304.43 |
1,332.99 |
1,607.86 |
1,624.28 |
| November |
— |
— |
1,295.29 |
1,309.87 |
1,598.99 |
1,625.81 |
| December |
— |
— |
1,249.41 |
1,258.90 |
1,530.51 |
1,554.88 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Table 6. Dynamics of LME prices for А380.1 aluminum alloy in
1997-1999 (1st half-year), USD/MT
|
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
|
| January |
1,025.55 |
1,052.46 |
1,328.73 |
1,349.85 |
1,497.20 |
1,519.95 |
| February |
1,023.90 |
1,046.71 |
1,290.48 |
1,315.83 |
1,491.25 |
1,499.91 |
| March |
1,059.80 |
1,080.89 |
1,269.95 |
1,298.02 |
1,523.09 |
1,546.88 |
| April |
1,162.45 |
1,181.11 |
1,283.00 |
1,311.15 |
1,454.20 |
1,483.16 |
| May |
1,233.32 |
1,249.76 |
1,363.37 |
1,392.05 |
1,481.68 |
1,505.15 |
| June |
1,201.98 |
1,221.91 |
1,222.57 |
1,219.79 |
1,447.43 |
1,471.33 |
| July |
— |
— |
1,245.04 |
1,200.70 |
1,425.34 |
1,453.52 |
| August |
— |
— |
1,148.90 |
1,171.13 |
1,475.94 |
1,502.65 |
| September |
— |
— |
1,154.05 |
1,182.14 |
1,426.64 |
1,455.14 |
| October |
— |
— |
1,114.18 |
1,146.11 |
1,442.59 |
1,463.57 |
| November |
— |
— |
1,084.26 |
1,114.76 |
1,470.28 |
1,478.64 |
| December |
— |
— |
1,046.71 |
1,077.12 |
1,396.40 |
1,417.40 |
*- hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Market for copper
In June, the events, the operators of the world copper market were long
looking forward to, started taking a tangible shape.
Firstly, the Asian market gave first signs of recuperating from the 1997’
crisis, while the economic advance in Europe and, especially, in the USA keeps on.
Secondly, in June, dreams on reduction in the global copper production
started materializing.
The wave of reports on decreased production at the enterprises of the USA,
Chile, and China delivered in late June made copper prices jump by almost USD 200 during a
single week (that is, approximately by 13-14%). While in the first half of June, LME
prices for copper kept at the level of USD/MT 1,374-1,416, starting from June 16 – the
date when rumored cut production started being confirmed – the price commenced gradually
increasing and reached USD/MT 1,431 as of June 22.
After management of such giant companies as “BHP”, “Phelps Dodge”,
“Asarco”, “Codelco”, as well as two Chinese manufacturers, made official
statements on reduced production (“BHP” will reduce annual production by nearly
180-190 ths. tons, “Phelps Dodge” – by 68,000 tons, and “Asarco” – by 23,600
tons in 1999, that is by 7%), on June 1 (specifically, in a week term), copper prices
soared to USD/MT 1,631. The strike at “Kidd Creek” plant (copper and zinc) of
“Falconbridge” companyalso added fuel to the fire. Such a situation is reasonable
since, under the immediate market conditions (currently, copper is in surplus supply on
the market), any rumored production decrease always initiated increase in prices for this
metal. Thus, against the background of improving post-crisis situation in Asian countries,
such actions could not help being immediately responded by the market.
The time of local records is a proper slogan for the beginning of July,
when simultaneously to a record high in aluminum price (as was mentioned above) the price
for copper hit a record high in the last 10 months – USD/MT 1,702.
According to the forecasts by experts, in the nearest weeks, potential
prices for copper will keep at USD/MT 1,645-1,674.
Table 7. LME quotations for copper in 1997-1999 (1st half-year),
USD/MT
|
Price
|
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
|||
|
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
|
| Low |
1,353.75 |
1,381.25 |
1,440.00 (14/12/98) |
1,469.00 (14/12/98) |
1,698.75 (30/12/97) |
1,728.50 (30/12/97) |
| High |
1,568.00 |
1,598.50 |
1,879.00 |
1,889.00 |
2,719.00 |
2,597.00 |
| Average price |
1,436.62 |
1,465.69 |
1,473.55 |
1,502.83 |
2,275.09 |
2,220.55 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Table 8. Dynamics of LME prices for copper in 1997-1999 (1st
half-year), USD/MT
|
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
Spot |
3 months* |
|
| January |
1,431.38 |
1,458.40 |
1,687.65 |
1,717.20 |
2,404.83 |
2,289.76 |
| February |
1,410.73 |
1,438.16 |
1,664.35 |
1,688.50 |
2,434.27 |
2,234.95 |
| March |
1,378.33 |
1,405.54 |
1,747.34 |
1,771.80 |
2,420.74 |
2,364.70 |
| April |
1,466.00 |
1,494.04 |
1,800.10 |
1,813.58 |
2,390.25 |
2,320.73 |
| May |
1,511.16 |
1,542.58 |
1,731.71 |
1,746.58 |
2,513.81 |
2,445.23 |
| June |
1,422.11 |
1,455.39 |
1,659.38 |
1,671.24 |
2,611.95 |
2,511.26 |
| July |
— |
— |
1,651.00 |
1,669.37 |
2,449.83 |
2,329.26 |
| August |
— |
— |
1,620.93 |
1,636.40 |
2,250.65 |
2,236.29 |
| September |
— |
— |
1,647.61 |
1,665.77 |
2,106.81 |
2,126.47 |
| October |
— |
— |
1,586.41 |
1,610.33 |
2,051.76 |
2,074.46 |
| November |
— |
— |
1,573.95 |
1,601.52 |
1,917.09 |
1,938.94 |
| December |
— |
— |
1,473.55 |
1,502.83 |
1,761.89 |
1,792.24 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Table 9. LME average prices for copper in 1995-1998, USD/MT
|
Spot |
3 months* |
|
| 1995 |
2,935.73 |
2,865.06 |
| 1996 |
2,289.42 |
2,222.15 |
| 1997 |
2,275.09 |
2,220.55 |
| 1998 |
1,653.67 |
1,674.59 |
| 1999 |
1,436.68 |
1,465.69 |
* – hereinafter prices under future contracts foresee supplies in three
months.
Prospects for copper market
The leading experts predict a new era for copper, which actually started
way back in July. The forecast is that copper market will see recovery. In this context,
all the market operators intently trace the trend of events in Japan still recovering
after the crisis.
Recent worldwide reductions in production volumes will have an outcome of
tense copper supplies starting from August. Taking into consideration that top consumption
will be in September, it is expected that the year would expire with substantially reduced
copper stocks, thus, closing with an unexpectedly low surplus of 250-300 ths. tons,
reverse to previous forecasts. In 2000, this level can plunge to 100 ths. tons. The times,
when copper price kept at USD/MT 1,400, have gone, and the gradual increase to USD/MT
1,800 is expected in the nearest months. Probably, the price will even rocket high to
USD/MT 2,000.
UKRAINE
Foreign trade
In the first half of 1999, according to the data with the State Statistics
Committee of Ukraine, export of non-ferrous metals from Ukraine accounted for 230.8 ths.
tons of non-ferrous metals and products from non-ferrous metals (USD 235.7 mln.), which is
respectively 130.25% (113.34%) against the respective period of 1998.
Traditionally, copper and aluminum are the main articles of Ukraine’s
export of non-ferrous metals. In the first half of 1999, export of aluminum and copper
increased against the corresponding period of the year before. In January-June 1999,
specific ratio of copper and aluminum groups also increased up to 90.02% in the total
Ukrainian export of non-ferrous metals. Nonetheless, their volume somewhat decreased in
terms of currency earnings – down to 89.61%.
The inflow of currency earnings from export of other non-ferrous metals
(except for nickel, lead, zinc and tin), cermets and products from them practically did
not change – a 5.32% as against 7.63% in January-June 1998.
Currency earnings from export of tools, cutlery, spoons and other products
from base metals also kept on declining. While in the first five months of 1998, these
products provided 7.97% (USD 17.64 mln.) of the total inflows, in 1999, this volume
narrowed to 4.21% (USD 9.92 mln.) in the total earnings from export of non-ferrous metals
and products from non-ferrous metals.
The share of such metals as nickel, lead, zinc, and tin is traditionally
insignificant. Currency earnings from export of these commodities accounted for USD 2.04
mln., that is about 0.9% of the total currency inflows, which is practically equal to the
figure of the first half of 1998 (USD 2.12 mln).
Table 10. Dynamics of currency earnings from export of non-ferrous
metals and products from them in the 1st half-year of 1998-1999
|
CN |
Commodities |
1st |
1st |
||||
|
Amount, MT |
Worth, USD |
Amount, MT |
%, |
Worth, USD |
%, |
||
|
74 |
Copper and copper products |
47,323 |
52.44 |
57,335.00 |
121.16 |
61.43 |
117.14 |
|
75 |
Nickel and nickel products |
157 |
0.38 |
203.00 |
129.30 |
0.74 |
194.74 |
|
76 |
Aluminum and aluminum products |
112,839 |
132.16 |
150,428.00 |
133.31 |
149.81 |
113.36 |
|
78 |
Lead and lead products |
4,332 |
1.42 |
2,589.00 |
59.76 |
0.84 |
59.15 |
|
79 |
Zinc and zinc products |
191 |
0.32 |
530.00 |
277.49 |
0.46 |
143.75 |
|
80 |
Tin and tin products |
Insignificant |
Insignificant |
— |
Insignificant |
— |
— |
|
81 |
Other base metals |
4,591 |
16.87 |
15,385.00 |
335.11 |
12.53 |
74.27 |
|
82 |
Tools, cutlery and spoons |
1,058 |
7.47 |
754.24 |
71.29 |
5.33 |
71.35 |
|
83 |
Other products from base metals |
10,401 |
10.17 |
3,569.86 |
34.32 |
4.59 |
33.49 |
| Total |
180,892 |
221.23 |
230,794.00 |
127.59 |
235.73 |
106.55 |
|
Main articles of export
Copper group
In the first six months of 1999, export of copper and copper products
increased against the respective period of 1998. During the 1999’ period under review,
Ukraine exported around 57.35 ths. tons of copper and copper products for a total of USD
61.5 mln., which is 121.6% and 117.15% versus the 1998’ appropriate period.
Still, decrease in exports took place at the expense of significant
increase in export of unrefined copper and copper alloys. After the Ukrainian law “On
scrap metal” came into force in June 1999 banning export of non-ferrous scrap, export of
unrefined copper in pellets has intensified due to increase in volumes of remelted scrap.
It should be mentioned that in June export of unrefined copper in pellets increased
geometrically. While in the first five months of 1999, there were 3,088 tons of this
product exported for a total of USD 2,897 ths., in June alone, export of unrefined copper
accounted for 2,142 tons yielding USD 2,378 ths., that is, respectively, 346.88% and 410%
against the average monthly indicators. Export of refined copper and copper alloys still
indicates high increase tempos of average monthly export.
In the total export of nonferrous metals, currency earnings from export of
copper and copper products exceeded the respective indicator of January-June 1998 by
nearly 3% indicating the increase of 26.06%.
Main export articles of copper group (“Unrefined copper; copper anodes
for electrolytic refining”, “Refined copper and unrefined copper alloys”, “Copper
scrap and wastes”) contributed 92.95% to the total export of this group and about 87.15%
to the total volume of currency earnings from export of copper products. In the first half
of 1999, copper scrap and waste provided the largest portion in export of copper products
– 77.32% in physical volume and 72.52% in currency earnings, despite the fact that in
June copper scrap and waste were practically not exported.
Table 11. Main articles of Ukraine’s export of copper and copper
products
|
Article |
1st |
1st |
||||
|
Amount, MT |
Turnover, USD ths. |
Amount, MT |
Turnover, USD ths. |
Percentage change in |
Percentage change in |
|
|
1 |
267 |
409 |
5,230 |
5,275 |
1,958.80 |
1,289.73 |
|
2 |
2,313 |
2,847 |
3,735 |
3,714 |
161.48 |
130.45 |
|
3 |
43,821 |
46,950 |
44,330 |
44,551 |
101.16 |
94.89 |
|
4 |
47,323 |
52,427 |
57,335 |
61,431 |
121.16 |
117.17 |
| 1 – Unrefined copper; copper anodes for electrolytic refining; 2 – Unrefined copper, unrefined copper alloys; 3 – Copper waste and scrap; 4 – Copper and copper products (all the copper group). |
||||||
Table 12. Destination of Ukrainian export of copper and copper
products (1st half-year of 1999)
|
Country |
Amount, MT |
Percentage |
Turnover, |
Percentage |
| Austria |
260.000 |
0.453 |
348,734.00 |
0.568 |
| Belarus |
1,774.120 |
3.094 |
3,413,141.00 |
5.556 |
| Belgium |
3,862.532 |
6.737 |
3,452,515.00 |
5.620 |
| Bulgaria |
720.664 |
1.257 |
959,448.00 |
1.562 |
| China |
794.027 |
1.385 |
838,179.00 |
1.364 |
| Germany |
40,093.158 |
69.928 |
43,045,928.00 |
70.072 |
| Hungary |
580.002 |
1.012 |
706,241.00 |
1.150 |
| Ireland |
280.665 |
0.490 |
285,321.00 |
0.464 |
| Italy |
2,095.712 |
3.655 |
1,674,412.00 |
2.726 |
| Lithuania |
160.846 |
0.281 |
333,145.00 |
0.542 |
| RF |
2,376.106 |
4.144 |
4,310,232.00 |
7.016 |
| Slovakia |
139.730 |
0.244 |
238,520.00 |
0.388 |
| South Korea |
1,022.110 |
1.783 |
953,573.00 |
1.552 |
| Switzerland |
120.000 |
0.209 |
129,602.00 |
0.211 |
| UK |
243.078 |
0.424 |
244,622.00 |
0.398 |
| Other countries |
2,812.253 |
4.905 |
497,242.00 |
0.809 |
| Total |
57,335.003 |
61,430,855.00 |
Aluminum group
The export turnover of commodities within aluminum group also keeps on
increasing. During January-June 1999, the total volume of these products increased by
33.31% against the respective period of 1998. While in the first two quarters of 1998,
export accounted for 112,839 tons of aluminum and aluminum products, turnover of the first
half of 1999 was 150,429 tons with a total of USD 149.81 mln. In the first half of 1998,
the respective sum was USD 132.16 mln.
As a result of the June decision to ban export of nonferrous metals scrap,
increase in export of commodities within this group originated from increase in export of
plain aluminum and aluminum alloys in ingots, like it was a month before. In the first six
months, export accounted for about 125,930 tons of aluminum (157.14% against the
January-June 1998’ level). Aluminum alloys were exported for a total of USD 125.88 mln.
(119.26% against January-June 1999). In June, export of the same products indicated an
increase by about 5,000 tons (USD 5 mln.) up from the monthly average.
In the first half of 1999, commodities of this group occupied 83.71% in the
total export of products within the group 76 (according to the Commodity Nomenclature of
Foreign Economic Activities), providing respectively 84.03% of foreign currency earnings.
Although there was no export of aluminum scrap in June, the share of aluminum in the total
export of commodities within the aluminum group in January-June 1999 remains substantial
– 15.37% in physical volume and 14.4% in the total currency earnings. In accordance with
all the above mentioned, one can notice that the export structure of aluminum and aluminum
products comprises just a few types of semifinished items and scrap – 99.08% in physical
volume and 98.43% in the total currency earnings.
Table 13. Main articles of Ukrainian export of aluminum and aluminum
products
|
Article |
1st half |
1st half |
||||
|
Amount, MT |
Turnover, USD ths. |
Amount, MT |
Turnover, USD ths. |
Percentage change in |
Percentage change in |
|
|
1 |
80,140 |
105,555 |
125,930 |
125,881 |
157.14 |
119.26 |
|
2 |
31,872 |
24,469 |
23,120 |
21,565 |
72.54 |
88.13 |
|
3 |
112,839 |
132,164 |
150,428 |
149,807 |
133.31 |
113.35 |
1 – Unrefined aluminum: unrefined aluminum alloys; 2 – Aluminum waste
and scrap; 3 – Aluminum and aluminum products (aluminum group).
Table 14. Destination of Ukrainian export of aluminum and aluminum
products
|
Country |
Amount, MT |
Percentage |
Turnover, |
Percentage |
| Austria |
1,163.27 |
0.77 |
1,052,307.00 |
0.70 |
| Belarus |
1,458.69 |
0.97 |
2,385,836.00 |
1.59 |
| Belize |
982.55 |
0.65 |
504,048.00 |
0.34 |
| Bulgaria |
459.76 |
0.31 |
183,771.00 |
0.12 |
| China |
1,094.34 |
0.73 |
841,868.00 |
0.56 |
| Czech Republic |
3,577.93 |
2.38 |
3,192,042.00 |
2.13 |
| Germany |
20,939.33 |
13.92 |
19,148,090.00 |
12.78 |
| Hungary |
19,381.86 |
12.88 |
22,905,453.00 |
15.29 |
| India |
1,208.93 |
0.80 |
1,214,164.00 |
0.81 |
| Ireland |
2,721.34 |
1.81 |
2,429,723.00 |
1.62 |
| Israel |
264.82 |
0.18 |
276,275.00 |
0.18 |
| Italy |
19,077.23 |
12.68 |
18,996,408.00 |
12.68 |
| Japan |
10,520.80 |
6.99 |
10,096,554.00 |
6.74 |
| Netherlands |
398.47 |
0.26 |
347,049.00 |
0.23 |
| Poland |
2,791.31 |
1.86 |
2,417,200.00 |
1.61 |
| RF |
16,105.27 |
10.71 |
20,329,594.00 |
13.57 |
| Seychelles |
500.00 |
0.33 |
420,152.00 |
0.28 |
| Slovakia |
1,822.88 |
1.21 |
2,009,013.00 |
1.34 |
| South Korea |
1,685.57 |
1.12 |
1,568,440.00 |
1.05 |
| Spain |
2,220.23 |
1.48 |
2,868,700.00 |
1.91 |
| Switzerland |
336.12 |
0.22 |
259,249.00 |
0.17 |
| Taiwan (China) |
5,499.75 |
3.66 |
5,266,514.00 |
3.52 |
| Turkey |
161.03 |
0.11 |
147,911.00 |
0.10 |
| UK |
7,914.42 |
5.26 |
3,853,828.00 |
2.57 |
| USA |
27,588.25 |
18.34 |
26,415,853.00 |
17.63 |
| Xianggang (Hong Kong) |
160.46 |
0.11 |
151,821.00 |
0.10 |
| Other countries |
394.00 |
0.26 |
524,618.00 |
0.35 |
| Total |
150,428.61 |
149,806,481.00 |
Characteristics of export supplies
In the first six months of 1999, the largest export supplies of the
following commodities were registered:
Unrefined aluminum and aluminum alloys – 125.93 ths. tons (a 54.56%)
for a total of USD 125.88 mln. (a 53.40%);
Copper scrap and waste – 44.33 ths. tons (a 19.21%) for a total of USD
44.55 mln. (a 18.90%);
Aluminum scrap and waste – 23.12 ths. tons (a 10.02%) for a total of
USD 21.57 mln. (a 9.35%).
Distribution of export supplies
So far, Germany holds the leadership among the largest importers of copper
group commodities. In the first half of 1999, about 70% of these products were supplied to
this country (over 40 ths. tons). Currency earnings yielded from export to Germany
accounted for about 70% (USD 43.05 mln.). Subsequent standings belong to Belgium (6.74%
and 5.62 % respectively) and Italy (3.65% and 2.73%). The RF (4.14% and 7.01%) and Belarus
(3.09% and 5.56%) represented the CIS leaders.
Traditionally, the leading importers of aluminum group commodities were the
USA (18.34% and 17.63%, that is 27.59 ths. tons with a total of USD 26.41 mln.), Germany
(13.92% and 12.78%), Hungary (12.88% and 15.29%), Italy (12.68% and 12.68%), the RF
(10.71% and 13.57%) and Japan (6.99% and 6.74%).
There were no significant changes in geography of supplies as against the
year 1998.
Conclusions
It should be mentioned that semifinished products and scrap still indicate
the highest specific weight in the export structure of nonferrous metals and products from
them. After banning exports of nonferrous scrap and waste, the share of semifinished
products in export will increase, with tempos outpacing growth rates of finished products.
Moreover, demand for aluminum and copper alloys on the world market keeps stable. Due to
economic rehabilitation on the markets of Southeast Asia, economic growth in the USA and
European countries, their consumption will increase. It should be also noted that
Ukrainian enterprises of nonferrous metallurgy are far from indicating good performance
results.
Despite in June interior price for nonferrous scrap decreased by 25-30% (as
a result of reduced scrap export), the demand for this product will intensify (at the
expense of month-on-month increase in export of aluminum and copper) and the price will
gradually move up.
It should be mentioned that, in the nearest time, the respective share of
currency earnings from export of nonferrous metals and products from them will increase at
the expense of rise in global prices for nonferrous metals.
"DerzhZovnishInform"