NONFERROUS METALS
NONFERROUS METALS
GLOBAL MARKET
Aluminum
May turned out to be the most favorable spring month for
aluminum market. In May, average price for aluminum settled at USD/MT 1,539.21, which
exceeded respective last months’ figure by USD/MT 42. Spread in prices for aluminum was
USD/MT 1,495-1,593 in May.
As regards aluminum alloys, unlike primary metal, prices
for alloys lowered. Average LME quotation indicated USD/MT 1,235, which is USD 7 down from
last month. In May, LME quotations for aluminum alloys fluctuated within USD/MT
1,215-1,261.
The last month of spring finally stopped downward trends,
which arose back in March. After decrease in prices at the beginning of spring, in late
April, prices for aluminum started recovering. However, the curve of prices failed to
reach the high traced in mid-February. What is more, in late May prices for aluminum
proceeded the decrease, in line with weakening of demand, which in May 2001 was lower than
in May 2000. Nevertheless, instability of May prices is quite usual for market in this
time period. Besides, this year, instability was supported by the aftereffects of power
crisis in the USA.
New strength of dollar and weakening of euro against the
background of US power problems initiated some expectations that low metal stock will
effect price increase more that demand and supply factors. Such a situation, along with
intensified construction works not only in Europe, but also in USA (one should keep in
mind that rate of discount lowered both in the USA and Europe) can result in slow but
stable recovery of aluminum prices. Moreover, due to energetic problems, as was informed
earlier, 10 manufacturers of primary aluminum in N.W. USA and Canada had to notably narrow
or even temporarily stop production.
In January-March 2001, the level of premiums for aluminum
of CIS origin was as follows (Rotterdam):
- USD/MT 5-10 for А5 aluminum;
- USD/MT 10-15 for А6 aluminum;
- USD/MT 5-20 for А7 aluminum.
Copper
As regards the situation on copper market in May, average
prices for this metal exceeded respective April indicator by USD/MT 18 and settled at
USD/MT 1,682.21, while April price was USD/MT 1,664.16. Throughout the whole month copper
quotations fluctuated within USD/MT 1,632.5-1,730.
The key event influencing copper market in May was decrease
of discount rates by the US Government and European Central Bank, which resulted to some
slight increase in copper prices in the second half of the month, namely, to USD/MT
1,700-1,720.
Striles at copper mills in South Africa (Palabora mine) and
Chile also could become a supportive factor and contribute to development of the situation
on global copper market. However, in this period, Kennecott Utah Copper announced
reduction of copper concentrate recovery and Phelps Dodge announced cut workplaces at
Tyrone (USA). These events compensated influence of strikes’ after-effect and supported
respective price balance on the market. It is worth mentioning that influence of global
economic decline also effects price policies on the copper market, which lately results in
price decrease. The latter is supported by lowered demand for copper as a result of
performing seasonal factors, which will be traced in the third quarter of 2001.
However, according to estimates, by the fourth quarter of
2001, global demand for copper will strengthen and contribute to narrowing of extra copper
concentrate stock, which will lead to price escalation.
At the same time, US copper consumption reached its low.
Thus, recent activation in economy of USA will echo on copper market by the end of the
year only.
Supposedly, global copper consumption, which in 2001
increased by 1.8% on average, will add 5.1% in 2002. If the forecast is correct, it will
be possible to avoid forming of extra copper stock on the market during this economic
cycle. Moreover, in 2001, an over-stock of 42 ths. tons is estimated, while 2002’
over-stock will reach 274 ths. tons. These calculations consider 250 ths. tons of copper
concentrate stock, which was accumulated during 1999-2000 and should be exhausted in 2001.
According to estimates of Bloomsbury Minerals Economics,
average price for copper in 2001 can reach USD/MT 1,757 and increase to USD/MT 2,314 in
2002.
UKRAINE
Foreign trade
In the first four opening months of 2001, export of
nonferrous metals and products accounted for 180 ths. tons worth USD 326.2 mln. Compared
to the respective period of 2000, physical export plunged by 16.1%, while currency
earnings soared by 40.8%. In January-April 2000, these indicators respectively were at
214.2 ths. tons and USD 231.7 mln.
By the results of January-April 2001, percentage of copper
and aluminum products accounted for 81.7% of total Ukrainian physical export of nonferrous
metals and 71.1% of total currency earnings of these products.
In January-April 2001, export of commodities within copper
and aluminum commodity groups lowered by 25.6 % (physical volume) and added 10.9%
(currency earnings) .
2001’ export supplies of nickel, lead, tin totally
amounted to 2.59 ths. tons worth USD 2.49 mln., that is 1.44% and 0.76% of total export
and total currency earnings respectively. To compare, respective 2000’ figures were:
2.55 ths. tons totaly worth USD 1.31 mln.
In January-April 2001, export indicators of other
nonferrous metal groups, cermets and products soared against 2000. While in January-April
2001 these accounted for 25 ths. tons worth USD 20 mln., in the first four months of 2000,
export accounted for 10.7 ths. tons worth USD 12.3 mln. Increase in these figures in the
period under review was 132.8% and 57.9% respectively. Percentage of such commodities in
total export of non-ferrous metals in January-April 2001 (physical volume and currency
earnings) indicated 13.9% and 5.97% respectively.
Copper
In the first four months of 2000, Ukraine exported 38.4
ths. MT of copper group commodities worth USD 64 mln. Compared to the respective period of
2000, physical export lowered by 12.4%, while currency earnings advanced by 36%.
Unrefined copper in ingots, refined copper and copper
alloys keep the first rank among copper group export commodities.
In January-April 2001, export of unrefined copper accounted
for 10.1 ths. tons worth USD 17.1 mln. During this period, export supplies of refined
copper and copper alloys accounted for 24.9 ths. tons worth USD 41.2 mln. Percentage of
these commodities in total export of copper group commodities indicated 91% (both physical
volume and currency earnings).
In January-April 2001, increase in export supplies within
sub-group refined copper and copper alloys accounted for 60.9% (physical volume) and
149.77% (currency earnings) against respective period of 2000.
Aluminum
In January-April 2001, Ukraine exported 108.2 ths. MT of
aluminum group commodities worth USD 167.9 mln. Physical export decreased by 38.3% and
currency earnings added 3.6% as against respective figure of the year 2000.
In 2000, physical export of aluminum group in total 2000
export of nonferrous metals indicated 60.1%, while currency earnings indicated 51.5%.
Primary aluminum and aluminum alloys in ingots
traditionally rank first in export of this group (74% in total export of aluminum group
commodities). Total export of these articles made 94 ths. MT worth USD 124.1 mln.
Supplies
In January-April 2001, the largest export supplies were as
follows:
- unrefined aluminum and aluminum alloys – 94 ths.
tons (52.32 %) worth USD 124 mln. (38.1%);
- refined aluminum and copper alloys – 25 ths. tons
(13.9 %) worth USD 41.2 mln. (12.6%).
Table 1. LME quotations for aluminum in 1999-2001
(Jan –May), USD/MT
| Price | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | |||
| Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | |
| Low |
1,446.50 (09.04.01) |
1,464.00 (09.04.01) |
1,396.50 |
1,427.50 |
1,139.75 |
1,162.75 |
| High |
1,737.00 (31.01.01) |
1,642.00 (31.01.01) |
1,744.50 |
1,739.50 |
1,630.50 (30.12.99) |
1,650.00 (30.12.99) |
| Average |
1,553.43 |
1,546.45 |
1,560.50 |
1,578.25 |
1,361.39 |
1,387.78 |
* Hereinafter prices are spelled for future contracts for supplies in three
months.
Table 2. Average LME prices for aluminum in 1995-2001
(Jan-May), USD/MT
| Spot | 3 months* | |
| 1995 |
1,804.98 |
1,831.81 |
| 1996 |
1,504.08 |
1,534.73 |
| 1997 |
1,598.42 |
1,618.52 |
| 1998 |
1,357.55 |
1,379.88 |
| 1999 |
1,361.39 |
1,387.78 |
| 2000 |
1,560.50 |
1,578.25 |
| 2001 |
1,553.43 |
1,546.45 |
Table 3. Average LME prices for А380.1 aluminum
alloy in 1995-2001 (Jan-May), USD/MT
| Spot | 3 months* | |
| 1995 |
1,655.08 |
1,686.24 |
| 1996 |
1,300.56 |
1,333.83 |
| 1997 |
1,459.72 |
1,481.88 |
| 1998 |
1,212.60 |
1,231.55 |
| 1999 |
1,192.29 |
1,221.68 |
| 2000 |
1,254.32 |
1,294.25 |
| 2001 |
1,229.81 |
1,254.84 |
Table 4. LME quotations for А 380.1 aluminum alloy
in 1999-2001 (Jan-May), USD/MT
| Price | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | |||||
| Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | |||
|
Low |
1,100.00 (03.01.01) |
1,145.00 (03.01.01) |
1,120.50 |
1,165.50 |
996.50 |
1,025.50 |
||
|
High |
1,290.00 (05.02.01) |
1,310.00 (05.02.01) |
1,435.50 |
1,480.00 |
1,358.00 (30.12.99) |
1,395.00 (29.12.99) |
||
|
Average |
1,229.81 |
1,254.84 |
1,254.32 |
1,294.25 |
1,192.29 |
1,221.68 |
||
Table 5. Dynamics of LME prices for aluminum in
1999-2001 (Jan-May), USD/MT
| 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | ||||
| Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | |
| Jan |
1,616.27 |
1,576.82 |
1,680.28 |
1,688.03 |
1,218.45 |
1,224.40 |
| Feb |
1,604.90 |
1,583.35 |
1,670.27 |
1,666.65 |
1,187.25 |
1,207.28 |
| Mar |
1,509.52 |
1,526.07 |
1,577.54 |
1,601.54 |
1,181.98 |
1,203.96 |
| Apr |
1,497.26 |
1,510.42 |
1,457.61 |
1,488.01 |
1,278.55 |
1,299.99 |
| May |
1,539.21 |
1,535.60 |
1,467.19 |
1,492.80 |
1,323.79 |
1,350.13 |
| June |
– |
– |
1,506.73 |
1,525.02 |
1,315.64 |
1,346.03 |
| July |
– |
– |
1,563.88 |
1,585.69 |
1,403.76 |
1,428.28 |
| Aug |
– |
– |
1,528.02 |
1,552.77 |
1,431.69 |
1,460.90 |
| Sept |
– |
– |
1,601.60 |
1,622.21 |
1,492.86 |
1,525.35 |
| Oct |
– |
– |
1,500.66 |
1,515.86 |
1,474.79 |
1,509.50 |
| Nov |
– |
– |
1,474.00 |
1,495.00 |
1,473.09 |
1,508.75 |
| Dec |
– |
– |
1,566.00 |
1,571.00 |
1,554.80 |
1,588.41 |
Table 6. Dynamics of LME prices for А380.1 aluminum
alloy in 1999-2001 (Jan-May), USD/MT
| 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | ||||
| Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | |
| Jan |
1,152.91 |
1,186.09 |
1,387.39 |
1,430.41 |
1,025.50 |
1,052.46 |
| Feb |
1,259.85 |
1,275.40 |
1,345.76 |
1,383.98 |
1,023.90 |
1,046.71 |
| Mar |
1,259.14 |
1,276.09 |
1,273.89 |
1,312.75 |
1,059.80 |
1,080.89 |
| Apr |
1,242.11 |
1,266.47 |
1,172.94 |
1,211.71 |
1,162.45 |
1,181.11 |
| May |
1,235.05 |
1,270.17 |
1,183.43 |
1,223.55 |
1,233.32 |
1,249.76 |
| June |
– |
– |
1,191.75 |
1,231.93 |
1,201.98 |
1,221.91 |
| July |
– |
– |
1,225.10 |
1,265.43 |
1,238.98 |
1,269.25 |
| Aug |
– |
– |
1,178.52 |
1,219.64 |
1,241.71 |
1,278.71 |
| Sept |
– |
– |
1,213.64 |
1,250.86 |
1,288.50 |
1,324.52 |
| Oct |
– |
– |
1,143.43 |
1,184.55 |
1,267.71 |
1,307.17 |
| Nov |
– |
– |
1,129.70 |
1,168.00 |
1,258.86 |
1,299.70 |
| Dec |
– |
– |
1,168.90 |
1,205.90 |
1,304.70 |
1,347.98 |
Table 7. LME copper quotations in 1999-2001
(Jan-May), USD/MT
| Price | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | |||||
| Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | |||
| Low |
1,632.00 (09.04.01) |
1,658.00 (09.04.01) |
1,606.75 |
1,640.00 |
1,353.75 |
1,381.25 |
||
| High |
1,837.00 (23.03.01) |
1,830.50 (23.03.01) |
1,897.50 |
1,935.50 |
1,846.0 |
1,880.50 |
||
| Average |
1,727.66 |
1,745.21 |
1,771.50 |
1,800.24 |
1,764.75 |
1,799.18 |
||
Table 8. Dynamics of LME prices for copper in
1999-2001 (Jan-May), USD/MT
| 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | ||||
| Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | Spot | 3 months* | |
| Jan |
1,787.50 |
1,795.07 |
1,843.59 |
1,880.98 |
1,431.38 |
1,458.40 |
| Feb |
1,765.65 |
1,781.80 |
1,800.39 |
1,835.90 |
1,410.73 |
1,438.16 |
| Mar |
1,738.77 |
1,757.68 |
1,738.99 |
1,770.10 |
1,378.33 |
1,405.54 |
| Apr |
1,664.16 |
1,690.16 |
1,678.75 |
1,709.61 |
1,466.00 |
1,494.04 |
| May |
1,682.21 |
1,701.36 |
1,785.62 |
1,806.85 |
1,511.16 |
1,542.58 |
| June |
– |
– |
1,753.82 |
1,773.86 |
1,422.11 |
1,455.39 |
| July |
– |
– |
1,799.36 |
1,824.41 |
1,639.59 |
1,671.17 |
| Aug |
– |
– |
1,855.86 |
1,883.66 |
1,647.62 |
1,680.50 |
| Sept |
– |
– |
1,960.40 |
1,985.98 |
1,750.34 |
1,784.81 |
| Oct |
– |
– |
1,898.59 |
1,916.11 |
1,724.12 |
1,756.45 |
| Nov |
– |
– |
1,795.00 |
1,820.00 |
1,727.55 |
1,759.14 |
| Dec |
– |
– |
1,851.00 |
1,873.00 |
1,764.75 |
1,798.80 |
Table 9. Average LME prices for copper in 1995-2001
(Jan-May), USD/mt
| Spot | 3 months* | |
| 1995 |
2,935.73 |
2,865.06 |
| 1996 |
2,289.42 |
2,222.15 |
| 1997 |
2,275.09 |
2,220.55 |
| 1998 |
1,653.67 |
1,674.59 |
| 1999 |
1,572.81 |
1,603.78 |
| 2000 |
1,771.50 |
1,800.24 |
| 2001 |
1,727.66 |
1,745.21 |
Table 10. Export dynamics of nonferrous metals and
products in Jan-Apr 2000-2001
| Code under Commodity Classification of Foreign Economic Axtivities |
Commodity | 2000 | 2001 | Physical volume, 2001/2000 ratio, % | Currency earnings, 2001/2000 ratio, % | ||
| Physical volume, MT | Currency earnings, USD | Physical volume, MT | Currency earnings, USD | ||||
| 74 | Copper and products |
46,052 |
47,067 |
38,480 |
64,022 |
83.6 |
136.0 |
| 75 | Nickel and products |
25 |
325 |
19 |
1493 |
75.7 |
459.1 |
| 76 | Aluminum and products |
151,080 |
162,117 |
108,212 |
167,873 |
71.6 |
103.6 |
| 78 | Lead and products |
2,328 |
787 |
2,490 |
865 |
107.0 |
109.9 |
| 79 | Zinc and products |
197 |
195 |
75 |
124 |
38.0 |
63.9 |
| 80 | Tin and products |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
833.3 |
2,946.4 |
| 81 | Other non-precious metals |
10,731 |
12,327 |
24,976 |
19,466 |
232.8 |
157.9 |
| 82 | Instruments and cutting products, spoons |
637 |
5,308 |
2,249 |
68,315 |
353.3 |
1,287.1 |
| 83 | Other products from non-precious metals |
3,136 |
3,524 |
3,156 |
4,054 |
100.6 |
115.0 |
| TOTAL |
214,185 |
231,650 |
179,658 |
326,217 |
83.9 |
140.8 |
|
Table 11. Major articles of Ukrainian export of
copper and products in Jan-Apr 2000-2001
| 2000 | 2001 | |||||
| Commodity | Physical volume, MT | Currency earnings, USD | Physical volume, MT | Currency earnings, USD | Physical volume, 2001/2000 ratio, % | Currency earnings, 2001/2000 ratio, % |
| Unrefined copper; copper anodes for electrolytic refining |
6,399 |
5,777 |
10,123 |
17,123 |
158.20 |
296.41 |
| Refined copper, unrefined copper alloys |
15,482 |
16,486 |
24,910 |
41,176 |
160.90 |
249.77 |
| Copper and products (the whole copper group), incl. scrap and wastes |
46,052 |
47,067 |
38,480 |
64,022 |
83.56 |
136.02 |
Table 12. Major countries importing Ukrainian copper
and products in Jan-Apr 2001, %
| Rating | Country | Percentage in total import | Percentage in total supplies of copper and products |
| 1 | Germany |
29.9 |
29.4 |
| 2 | Mexico |
15.5 |
14.2 |
| 3 | Switzerland |
8.1 |
8.9 |
| 4 | Turkey |
5.3 |
4.6 |
| 5 | RF |
5.2 |
5.5 |
| 6 | Italy |
4.9 |
5.9 |
| 7 | USA |
4.6 |
5.0 |
| 6 | France |
4.4 |
4.7 |
| 9 | Belgium |
4.1 |
3.8 |
| 10 | UK |
3.3 |
2.9 |
| Other countries |
14.7 |
15.1 |
|
| TOTAL |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
Table 13. Major articles of Ukrainian export of
aluminum and products in Jan-Apr 2000-2001
| Commodity | 2000 | 2001 | ||||
| Physical volume, MT | Currency earnings, USD | Physical volume, MT | Currency earnings, USD | Physical volume, 2001/2000 ratio, % | Currency earnings, 2001/2000 ratio, % | |
| Unrefined aluminum, unrefined aluminum alloys |
121,200 |
133,942 |
94,016 |
124,084 |
77.57 |
92.64 |
| Aluminum and products (aluminum group), incl. scrap and wastes |
151,080 |
162,117 |
108,212 |
167,873 |
71.63 |
103.55 |
Table 14. Major importing countries of Ukrainian
aluminum and products in Jan-Apr 2001, %
| Rating | Country | Percentage in total import | Percentage in total supplies of aluminum and products |
| 1 | Hungary |
20.9 |
20.9 |
| 2 | USA |
18.7 |
12.7 |
| 3 | RF |
11.8 |
11.1 |
| 4 | Italy |
11.1 |
15.0 |
| 5 | Germany |
8.6 |
6.9 |
| 6 | Slovakia |
6.7 |
7.4 |
| 7 | Japan |
6.5 |
8.0 |
| 8 | Cyprus |
2.5 |
3.1 |
| 9 | CR |
2.2 |
3.1 |
| 10 | UK |
2.2 |
2.6 |
| Other countries |
8.8 |
9.2 |
|
| TOTAL |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|